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All Models Are Uncertain
Preface
Orienting
1. Orienting
2. Curiosity and Skepticism: A Healthy Mindset
3. The Modeling Process
4. A Grammar of Model Analysis: Grama
5. A Brief Introduction to Data Tools
Developing
6. Conceptual Tools for Handling Uncertainty
7. Distributions
7.1. Single Uncertainties: Marginal Distributions
7.2. Multiple uncertainties: Modeling dependency
7.3. Dealing with Limited Data: Sampling Uncertainty
8. Functions
8.1. Vectorizing Functions
8.2. Modeling Functions
8.3. Practical Fitting
8.4. Sampling and Surrogates
9. Models
9.1. Dimension Reduction
9.2. Dimensional Analysis
9.3. Uncertainty Propagation: Concepts
9.4. Uncertainty Propagation: Algorithms
9.5. Exploratory Model Analysis (EMA)
Answering
10. Answering
10.1. Making Decisions Under Uncertainty: Nuclear Waste Storage Safety
10.2. Assessing Model Assumptions: Disease Transmission and Social Connectivity
10.3. Designing Procedures: Uncertainty-Informed Design Codes
10.4. Interpreting Model Structure: Solar Receiver
Appendices
11. Datasets and Models
11.1. Datasets: Alloys
11.2. Datasets: Turbulence Data
11.3. Models: Boat hulls
11.4. Models: RLC Circuits
11.5. Models: Projectile Motion
11.6. Models: Piston cycle time
11.7. Models: Solar Receiver
11.8. Models: Limit State Analysis and Structural Models
11.9. Models: Agent-based Disease Transmission Model
12. Fundamentals of Exploratory Data Analysis
13. Sampling Plans for Gaussian Processes
14. Concepts in Random Variable Modeling
15. Nonlinear Least Squares
16. Reproducibility Details
Index
Index
A
|
B
|
C
|
D
|
E
|
F
|
G
|
H
|
I
|
L
|
M
|
P
|
Q
|
R
|
S
|
T
|
U
|
V
A
active subspaces
dimension reduction
shadow plot
allowable values
assignable cause
see also uncertainty ; cause
assumptions
being explicit
,
[1]
,
[2]
B
basis values
bias
see also model-form uncertainty
C
certainty
chance cause
see also uncertainty ; cause
common random numbers
see also uncertainty propagation ; monte carlo
conservative values
control chart
see also assignable cause
copula
cross-validation
see also fitting
curse of dimensionality
see also dimension reduction
D
data
experimental vs simulation data
filtering
grouping
mutating
re-ordering
reshaping (pivoting)
summarizing
tidy data
descriptive statistics
asymmetry ; skewness
dependency ; correlation
location ; mean
location ; median
quantile
spread ; IQR
spread ; standard deviation
spread ; variance
tail weight ; kurtosis
design
conceptual design
,
[1]
detailed design
design of computer experiments
see also sampling
dimension reduction
active subspaces
Sobol' indices
dimensional analysis
E
EDA
see also exploratory data analysis
EMA
see also exploratory model analysis
erroneous
see also uncertainty ; source
examples
angle ply composite
,
[1]
,
[2]
boat hull design
buckling plate
cantilever beam
,
[1]
cast aluminum dataset
,
[1]
,
[2]
cast steel dataset
,
[1]
disease spread
manufacturing uncertainties
parallel RLC circuit
,
[1]
pipe flow
piston cycle time
projectile motion
rolled aluminum dataset
solar receiver
,
[1]
turbulence
examples : buckling plate
exploratory data analysis
see also mindset ; curiosity
exploratory model analysis
see also mindset ; curiosity
extrapolation
see also fitting
see also mindset ; skepticism
F
feature
see also modeling ; input
fitting
maximum likelihood estimation
,
[1]
method of moments
,
[1]
nonlinear least squares
overfitting
residual
test-train split
underfitting
G
gaussian process
kernel
see also modeling ; empirical model
ggplot
grama
boilerplate code
df_det
,
[1]
df_grid()
df_make()
ev_form_ria()
ev_linup()
ev_sample()
,
[1]
,
[2]
filter helpers
ft_gp()
ft_nls()
,
[1]
ft_rf()
installation
model definition
mutation helpers
py-grama
selection helpers
skip evaluation
,
[1]
summary functions
tf_arrange()
tf_count()
tf_filter()
tf_group_by()
tf_kfolds()
tf_mutate()
tf_outer()
tf_pivot_longer()
tf_pivot_wider()
tf_reweight()
tf_select()
tf_summarize()
verbs
H
histogram
golden rule of histograms
hypothesis
I
importance sampling
see also uncertainty propagation ; monte carlo
L
least squares model fitting
limit state
,
[1]
,
[2]
load and resistance factor design (LRFD)
lurking variable
M
mean squared error
mindset
curiosity
skepticism
model-form uncertainty
see also uncertainty ; nature
modeling
action
distributions
empirical model
functions
hyperparameter
input
,
[1]
input vs parameter
marginal distribution
output
parameter
physical model
process
quantity of interest
,
[1]
questions
specificity
system boundary
validation data
verification and validation
,
[1]
P
pandas
DataFrame
parametric uncertainty
see also modeling ; marginal distribution
see also uncertainty ; nature
plotnine
probability
random variable
realization
,
[1]
see also reliability
see also uncertainty propagation
python
anaconda distribution
help()
jupyter notebook
keyword arguments
Q
QOI
see also modeling ; quantity of interest
qq plot
,
[1]
R
random forest
see also modeling ; empirical model
random seed
see also uncertainty propagation ; monte carlo
real
see also uncertainty ; source
reliability
probability of failure
reliability index
,
[1]
see also uncertainty propagation
reparameterization
,
[1]
response
see also modeling ; output
S
sampling
bootstrap
,
[1]
central limit theorem
confidence interval
,
[1]
golden rule for confidence intervals
population
prediction interval
random sample
sample
sampling distribution
see also uncertainty ; source
standard error
support points
tolerance interval
seed
see also random seed
sinew plot
see also exploratory model analysis
single : examples
cast aluminum dataset
disease spread
,
[1]
Sobol' indices
dimension reduction
statistical control
see also uncertainty ; cause
statistical interval
see also sampling
surrogate model
,
[1]
T
typical values
U
uncertainty
cause
nature
source
,
[1]
targeting
variability
uncertainty propagation
concepts
first-order reliability method
linear uncertainty propagation
monte carlo
V
variable
see also modeling ; input
vectorization